U.S. short-term rental demand growth slowed to 0.9% in February 2026

Updated 15 October 2026. After a source check by the standards desk, 1 sentence was removed because no source confirmed its specifics. Corrections log.

On March 24, 2026, AirDNA reported that U.S. short-term rental demand growth slowed to 0.9% in February 2026, marking only the second time demand growth fell below 1% since February 2021. The cooling demand came as the market continued to rebalance, with supply expansion outpacing the softening consumer interest and putting downward pressure on occupancy rates across the country.

Despite the slower demand growth, booking activity for future dates remained steady, suggesting that forward demand was holding firm as travelers shifted toward shorter booking windows and more seasonal travel patterns. Average daily rates also remained relatively stable, helping to offset some of the revenue impact on hosts, while established operators continued to demonstrate pricing strength.

What the data shows

According to the performance metrics published by AirDNA, the average occupancy rate for U.S. short-term rentals fell 0.7% year-over-year to 59.3% in January 2026. This decline was driven by available listings expanding at a faster rate than demand, with total available listings reaching 1.61 million in January 2026, which was a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year.

Despite the lower occupancy, Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR) rose 2.6% year-over-year to $154.00 in January 2026. This increase was supported by average daily rates (ADR), which climbed to $259.58 in January 2026, representing a 3.3% increase from the previous year. The AirDNA Repeat Rent Index (RRI), which tracks the pricing performance of established operators, rose 4.4% year-over-year in the January 2026 summary metrics, while the text of the report noted that RRI growth actually posted a stronger 4.9% increase in February 2026, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration.

Total nights booked during January 2026 were up 7.2% compared to January 2025. However, listing growth showed signs of deceleration. The 2.9% year-over-year growth in available listings in February 2026 was a step down from the 3.6% growth recorded in January 2026, which had been the peak of a halting recovery since supply growth fell below 2% during the summer of 2025. New listings entering the market experienced a more sudden shift, falling from a rise of 2.8% in January 2026 to a decline of 0.5% in February 2026.

Pricing power varied significantly by geography and location type. Coastal resorts recorded the largest increase in ADR, rising 8.4% year-over-year. Within these coastal areas, Key West, Florida, saw ADR rise 5.8%; Kauai, Hawaii, rose 7.9%; and Santa Rosa/Rosemary Beach, Florida, rose 17.3%. Mountain and lake resorts experienced a substantial gap between existing operators and new entrants, as RRI growth rose 6.2% while overall ADR growth rose 2.5%. Urban locations experienced weak pricing power with ADR rising 0.7%, whereas suburban locations saw ADR rise 4.5%.

Out of the top 50 U.S. short-term rental markets, 28 recorded declining occupancy. In contrast, the top markets for occupancy growth included Nashville, which rose 13.8%, as well as San Francisco and Oakland, California, which both rose 7.4%.

How it was measured

The figures were compiled and analyzed by AirDNA, a short-term rental data and analytics provider. The data covers performance metrics for the U.S. short-term rental market during January and February 2026, comparing them to the corresponding periods in 2025. AirDNA did not publish its complete underlying data collection or scraping methodology within this specific report, but the organization utilizes performance tracking from active listings on major platforms, including Airbnb, and allows hosts to connect their individual listings directly to the platform to calculate a Booking Performance Score.

What moves these numbers

Several macroeconomic factors and localized events influenced the short-term rental market’s performance in February 2026. On the economic front, the U.S. labor market showed signs of softening, with 92,000 jobs lost during the month. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, while the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.0%, its lowest level since December 2021. This employment uncertainty was expected to influence consumers to defer or downscale their travel plans.

Although a Supreme Court ruling invalidated many emergency tariffs, the administration used other legal levers to impose global tariffs, which stabilized the total effective rate. However, geopolitical events created new pressure just after the inflation report was finalized. U.S. attacks on Iran and the subsequent closing of the Strait of Hormuz drove West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices more than 40% higher than their levels at the end of February. Liquid natural gas prices also began rising, which was expected to impact gasoline and energy costs, potentially straining consumer travel budgets.

Weather also played a significant role. Extremely cold weather in January 2026 had caused U.S. home sales to decline and delayed hosts from preparing and introducing new listings, contributing to the decline of 0.5% in new listings in February. Conversely, the bitter winter cold in northern regions drove travelers to warmer southern destinations, boosting ADRs in coastal resorts. In mountain and lake resorts, a snow drought that had limited travel in January relented somewhat in February, allowing established operators to raise their rates.

Event-driven demand

Future booking activity was heavily driven by major scheduled events, including Spring Break, the World Cup, and music tours. Spring Break, which fell primarily in late March or early April, and summer World Cup matches contributed to the 7.2% increase in booked nights.

In Austin, Texas, the SXSW festival drove bookings, though a slightly shorter planned duration for the event had a negative impact on pacing, particularly during the latter half of the festival which fell on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

The most dramatic event-driven impact came from the Korean pop group BTS, which planned an extensive world tour with multiple U.S. stops. In Tampa, Florida, and El Paso, Texas, where concert stops were scheduled for late April and early May, more than half of all available short-term rental listings were already booked. For El Paso, this resulted in a 565% increase in paced occupancy for those dates compared to the same period in the previous year, bringing total occupancy close to 80%. Other markets experienced similar surges in paced occupancy for concert dates, including Baltimore at a rise of 336%, the Dallas/Fort Worth area (with the concert in Arlington) at a rise of 330%, and Los Angeles (with the concert in Inglewood) at a rise of 144%.

Who it affects

The performance trends in February 2026 affected different segments of the short-term rental industry in distinct ways. Established operators and property managers holding mature portfolios benefited from the Repeat Rent Index (RRI) rising 4.9%, which outpaced the average daily rate growth of 3.3%. This gap indicated that existing hosts could price their properties more aggressively than new entrants. New entrants, who often positioned themselves as value-conscious options and operated smaller listings, faced tougher competition and weaker pricing power.

The shift in demand also affected regional hosts differently. Coastal resort hosts benefited from high pricing power, as lower-quality listings in these markets were withheld due to expectations of weak demand, thereby supporting higher overall ADRs. Meanwhile, urban hosts struggled with weak pricing power of 0.7%, while suburban hosts enjoyed a stronger pricing environment with ADRs up 4.5%.

What the data does not tell you

While the report highlighted strong booking pacing for the second quarter of 2026, it did not guarantee that these bookings would translate into final realized demand. AirDNA noted that early bookings might have pushed summer pacing beyond where eventual demand would actually land.

Additionally, the report did not clarify the long-term impact of the energy price shock. Although West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose more than 40% after the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, Oxford Economics did not expect inflation to reach the post-pandemic highs seen in 2022, but the data could not predict how prolonged the energy disruption would be or how it would affect freight and raw input prices over the rest of the year.

The data also did not reveal whether the Trump administration would pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates too quickly, which was a factor to watch as it could cause prices to rise more rapidly and diminish host pricing power. Finally, the report did not provide specific details on how much of the decline in new listings (down 0.5% in February) was due to temporary weather effects versus a broader, permanent slowdown in investor interest.

What to take from it

Short-term rental operators and investors must adapt to a more normalized market where pricing power is concentrated among established listings and specific event windows.

• Track the Repeat Rent Index (RRI) against your own Average Daily Rate (ADR) to determine if your pricing power matches established market operators or if you are underpricing.
• Monitor local event calendars (such as concerts and sporting events) at least six months in advance to adjust minimum stay requirements and pricing before booking windows open.
• Evaluate suburban versus urban performance in your specific region, as suburban locations showed significantly higher pricing power (4.5%) compared to urban centers (0.7%) during this period.
• Watch supply growth trends in your specific micro-market, as national occupancy declines were heavily driven by localized demand shortfalls rather than uniform supply expansion.