U.S. short-term rental occupancy fell to 51.2% in November 2025

Updated 15 October 2026. After a source check by the standards desk, 1 sentence was removed because no source confirmed its specifics. Corrections log.

On December 18, 2025, AirDNA reported that U.S. short-term rental occupancy averaged 51.2% in November 2025, representing a 2.6% decline compared to the same period in the previous year. The drop in occupancy occurred as supply growth outpaced demand growth, even as holiday travel pacing showed signs of improvement heading into the end of the year.

According to the report, the broader short-term rental market faced a combination of calendar shifts and high economic policy uncertainty. Despite these headwinds, average daily rates remained resilient, climbing slightly above the previous year’s levels and indicating that property managers and hosts maintained their pricing power during a period of transition.

What the data shows

The data published by AirDNA showed that U.S. short-term rental performance in November 2025 was characterized by steady supply growth and a deceleration in headline demand. Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR) decreased 1.1% year-over-year to $115.97. This decline was driven by a 4.7% increase in available listings, which reached 1.73 million, while demand nights grew by only 1.4% during the month. Consequently, the average occupancy rate fell 2.6% year-over-year to 51.2%. This performance marked a step down from October and reflected a month shaped by weaker early performance and continued economic uncertainty.

Despite the downward pressure on occupancy, average daily rates (ADR) continued their upward trajectory, showing resilience in the face of broader market headwinds. ADR rose 1.6% year-over-year to $226.61, following a 1.7% increase in October 2025. AirDNA’s Repeat Rent Index (RRI), which tracks rate changes for existing, persistent listings and excludes the impact of new listings on the overall rate, rose 1.7% year-over-year. Total nights booked, which include future stays, grew 2.3% compared to October 2024. This alignment between ADR and RRI suggested that pricing trends among established listings were reflecting underlying market conditions more clearly as supply growth slowed.

On a year-to-date basis, occupancy remained slightly higher than the first eleven months of 2024, averaging 57.9% compared to 57.7%. However, this lead narrowed over the course of the year. Occupancy began 2025 with a sizable lead over 2024, but the advantage eroded during the summer months, and occupancy levels converged before falling below 2024 levels in September. The convergence indicated that the supply-demand balance was shifting as the year progressed.

How it was measured

The metrics were compiled and analyzed by AirDNA, a short-term rental data and analytics provider. The report analyzed performance data for the U.S. short-term rental market during November 2025, comparing the results to the same month in 2024 and evaluating year-to-date trends for the first eleven months of 2025. Bram Gallagher, AirDNA’s Director of Economics and Forecasting, authored the analysis.

To measure pricing trends, AirDNA utilized two distinct metrics: Average Daily Rate (ADR) and the Repeat Rent Index (RRI). Standard ADR measures the average rate across all booked nights, which can be influenced by new listings entering the market—a phenomenon known as mix shift. The RRI, by contrast, tracks rate changes only for existing, persistent listings. As supply growth slowed in late 2025, the influence of mix shift on total ADR change diminished, allowing pricing trends among established listings to reflect underlying market conditions more clearly. This dual-metric approach helps operators distinguish between rate changes driven by market demand and those driven by changes in the quality or type of active inventory.

The source did not publish the exact size of the property sample used to generate these metrics, nor did it disclose the specific data collection methods, scraping protocols, or integration partnerships used to aggregate booking information from platforms such as Airbnb and Vrbo. It also did not provide the baseline number of active hosts or property managers represented in the data.

Economic and calendar drivers

The performance of the short-term rental market in November 2025 was heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and calendar alignments. The U.S. economy experienced the longest government shutdown to date, which led to the cancellation of several key economic reports just as the Federal Reserve faced crucial interest rate decisions. Despite this disruption, private-sector data suggested the economy continued on its prior trajectory. Hiring and layoffs remained low, pointing to a slightly softening labor market. The Federal Reserve projected unemployment to peak at 4.5% by the end of the year before declining. Consumption appeared to be firming as the year drew to a close, raising questions about the Federal Reserve’s primary concerns.

The housing market remained a source of economic weakness due to high mortgage rates. Mortgage rates, which peaked at approximately 7.8% in October 2023, had eased to between 6.1% and 6.3% by late 2025. In response to these conditions, the Federal Reserve ordered an additional interest rate cut at its December 10th meeting. However, this early cut did not materially change the Fed’s interest rate outlook through the end of 2026, implying one fewer cut in March 2026.

Calendar shifts had a direct, measurable impact on demand. November demand growth was reported at 1.5% year-over-year, marking a step down from the 2.6% growth recorded in October. However, this deceleration was largely due to a calendar mismatch: November 2025 included one fewer Friday and one additional Sunday compared to November 2024. This missing Friday removed at least 212,000 demand nights from the month. When compared on a matched day-of-week basis, November demand growth improved to 2.7%. Daily demand tracking showed that growth rates rarely fell below 2% and reached or exceeded 6% at times. Thanksgiving travel also performed strongly, with demand growing between 3.5% and 4.0% year-over-year, outperforming the monthly average.

Supply growth remained steady despite these economic uncertainties. Supply growth in terms of available listing nights had been declining since interest rates began rising in 2022. This trend continued until February 2025, when supply growth fell to 4.1%. Supply growth largely remained at that level throughout the year, with a brief acceleration in June to 5.1% before declining back to 4.0% by November. The steadiness of this growth rate, combined with a thawing housing market and potential demand tailwinds from recent budget legislation, suggested that supply growth may have reached a bottom.

Regional performance and recovery

Performance across different location types and local markets diverged significantly. While available listings increased across all categories, only Large City Suburban and Small City/Rural markets recorded positive demand growth. Small City/Rural markets saw demand rise 4.6% in November, but this was outpaced by an 8.4% increase in available listing nights, leading to continued occupancy pressure. Suburban markets experienced relatively flat demand and posted a 3.1% year-over-year decline in occupancy. This divergence highlighted the varying dynamics between high-growth rural areas and more stable suburban environments.

At the individual market level, occupancy and pricing often moved in opposite directions. Bay Area markets that implemented regulations to limit supply growth recorded some of the strongest occupancy gains. San Francisco occupancy rose 8.0%, with ADR increasing 2.1%. San Jose/ Palo Alto, California, saw occupancy rise 4.7% and ADR increase 3.8%. Oakland, California, recorded a 4.4% occupancy increase and a 3.3% ADR gain. These regulated markets demonstrated how supply constraints can support both occupancy and pricing stability.

Conversely, the highest ADR growth rates occurred in markets that experienced significant occupancy declines. Long Island, New York, recorded a 19.6% ADR increase alongside a 7.0% decline in occupancy. In Florida, Sarasota saw ADR rise 16.8% while occupancy fell 21.2%, and St. Petersburg recorded a 12.9% ADR increase alongside a 23.3% occupancy decline. Ongoing hurricane recovery efforts in Sarasota and St. Petersburg continued to complicate year-over-year comparisons, though the broader inverse relationship between occupancy and pricing held across most markets.

Holiday pacing data for the end of the year showed strong travel interest. Combined demand for December 31st and January 1st was pacing 15.8% ahead of the previous year. Demand for New Year’s Day was pacing 38.4% ahead of Thursday, January 2, 2024. Across most location types, demand for the two weeks surrounding the holidays paced between 9% and 12% higher year-over-year. In recovery markets, Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Florida, posted a 22.3% demand pacing increase compared to 2024, while Asheville, North Carolina, recorded a 52.3% pacing gain. The Dallas/Fort Worth area in Texas also recorded notable year-over-year demand gains. Resort markets and Small City/Rural locations saw slightly stronger gains, suggesting travelers were splitting time between traditional holiday destinations and visits to family.

What to take from it

The November 2025 data highlights several key practices for short-term rental operators and investors analyzing market performance reports.

• Compare demand on a matched day-of-week basis rather than relying solely on calendar-month totals, as minor shifts in weekend alignments can distort headline growth rates.
• Monitor the relationship between local supply growth and demand growth; even when local demand rises, a faster expansion of available listings will depress occupancy.
• Track both standard ADR and the Repeat Rent Index to distinguish between true pricing power among established properties and shifts caused by new, higher-priced inventory entering the market.
• Analyze holiday pacing data at least a month in advance to adjust minimum-stay requirements and pricing strategies before peak travel windows close.