European short-term rental occupancy fell to 57% in February 2026

Updated 15 October 2026. After a source check by the standards desk, 1 sentence was removed because no source confirmed its specifics. Corrections log.

On March 19, 2026, AirDNA reported that short-term rental occupancy in Europe fell 3.4% year over year in February 2026, dropping to an average of 57% as available listing growth continued to outpace traveler demand across the continent. This decline occurred despite a slight recovery in average daily rates, which rose for the first time since July 2025.

The performance metrics for February 2026 highlighted a widening gap between supply and demand. While available listings grew steadily, total demand nights registered their largest year-over-year decline since March 2021, signaling a shift in travel patterns and economic caution among European consumers.

What the data shows

AirDNA reported that available listings in Europe reached 3.3 million in February 2026, representing a 3.3% increase compared to February 2025. In contrast, demand nights declined by 4.5% year over year, falling to a total of 24.9 million nights. This imbalance drove the average occupancy rate down to 57%, which was a decrease of 3.4% year over year and a decline of 0.9% compared to February 2024.

Despite the drop in occupancy, the average daily rate (ADR) grew by 0.4% year over year to reach €119.7. This modest rate growth helped mitigate the decline in revenue per available rental night (RevPAR), which decreased by 3.1% year over year to €68. Additionally, the Repeat Rent Index (RRI), which tracks pricing changes specifically among existing operators, rose by 10.2% year over year in February 2026.

How it was measured

The figures were compiled by AirDNA, a short-term rental analytics firm, and published on March 19, 2026. AirDNA tracked performance metrics across European short-term rental properties during the month of February 2026. The metrics included available listings, demand nights, average daily rates, and occupancy rates.

To analyze pricing trends, AirDNA utilized the Repeat Rent Index (RRI), a metric designed to measure rate changes among existing operators while excluding the impact of new listings entering the market. For geopolitical analysis, the firm tracked cancellation rates by dividing the total number of nights canceled by the total gross nights booked. It compared a baseline period of February 21 to February 27, 2026, against a conflict window of February 28 to March 6, 2026, to assess the immediate impact of regional conflicts.

Economic pressures and supply dynamics

The broader European economy experienced rising uncertainty in early 2026, particularly as conflicts in Iran grew and influenced energy markets. AirDNA reported that rising oil and gas prices drove inflation upward, making Europe more vulnerable to these disruptions than other regions. Oxford Economics projected that inflation in Europe would be 0.5% to 0.6% higher by the end of 2026 than earlier predictions had indicated.

Despite this inflationary pressure, the European Central Bank (ECB) was not expected to raise interest rates, as inflation had remained close to the 2% medium-term target since mid-2024. The ECB target interest rate was expected to remain stable at around 2.15%, with energy prices projected to stabilize by the third quarter of 2026. However, cold winter temperatures combined with rising gas prices for home heating were expected to make travelers more cautious with their travel expenses in the short term.

Supply growth, while positive, showed signs of stabilization compared to previous years. New listings, which track properties entering the market for the first time, had slowed significantly in 2025 following a strong expansion in 2024. In January 2026, new listings saw a minor year-over-year increase of 0.5%, and this momentum continued into February 2026 with a 1.8% growth rate. AirDNA noted that this recovery suggested Europe was entering a period of slower, more stable supply growth.

Divergent trends across European nations

The performance of individual countries within Europe’s top 20 nations varied significantly in February 2026. Denmark experienced a substantial rise in new listings, recording nearly 7,000 properties, which was 5,000 more than in February 2025. The United Kingdom market saw 15,000 new listings in February 2026, an increase of 3,500 listings compared to the previous year. Conversely, Spain saw its new listings drop sharply by nearly 6,000 properties, representing a 46% year-over-year decrease that AirDNA attributed to stricter regulations.

In terms of overall available listings, Denmark led the growth with a 15.8% increase, followed by Finland at 13.5%, the Czech Republic at 11.2%, and Italy at 10.2%. AirDNA observed that Nordic countries and the Czech Republic continued to outperform their peers, which could be linked to more lenient regulations compared to mature markets, or a trend of cost-conscious travelers seeking secondary destinations during the off-season.

Italy’s 10.2% supply growth in February 2026 marked its largest year-over-year increase in available listings since September 2024. It was only the second month in the past 13 months that did not experience a decline in Italian listings, with January 2026 being the other. This growth followed tighter regulations that had hampered the Italian market in 2025, suggesting that operators were adapting to the new rules. Within Italy, major markets saw significant gains, including Milan at 23%, Bari at 19%, and Verona at 16%.

Only three major nations experienced declines in available listings in February 2026. Hungary recorded a small decrease of 1.3%, reversing its growth from January. Greece saw its available listings decline by 6.1% in February, following a 6.9% drop in January. Spain recorded the largest year-over-year decrease among Europe’s top 20 nations for the second consecutive month, with a 12.5% decline. Among major Spanish markets, available listings fell by 12% in Madrid, 6% in Barcelona, 13% in Valencia, and 10% in Marbella.

Occupancy and demand imbalances

Occupancy rates declined in 19 out of Europe’s top 20 countries in February 2026. Hungary was the sole exception, where bed occupancy increased by 2.9% compared to the previous year. The widespread occupancy drops were primarily driven by sharp declines in traveler demand, particularly in leisure-focused markets.

In Croatia, demand nights fell by 26.4% year over year, resulting in a 9.4% decrease in occupancy, which was the worst performance in Europe. Other countries also experienced significant demand drops, including Denmark at 12.0%, Spain at 11.4%, and Austria at 9.7%.

Even in countries where traveler demand increased, the rise in bookings was insufficient to offset supply growth. In Finland, demand grew by 10.3%, but occupancy declined because available listings rose by 13.5%. In the Czech Republic, demand increased by 6.0%, but supply grew by 11.2%. In Norway, demand rose by 6.2% and active listing nights grew by 6.3%, but occupancy still fell despite a 4.8% increase in available listings.

Pricing power and booking pipelines

The 0.4% year-over-year increase in European ADR to €119.7 in February 2026 marked a shift from the preceding six months, when ADR had declined by an average of 1.7% between August and January. The Repeat Rent Index (RRI) presented an even stronger pricing picture, surging to a 10.2% year-over-year growth rate in February 2026, its highest level in over a year.

AirDNA noted that ADR and RRI had moved in different trajectories over the past year. While ADR spent most of late 2025 in negative territory, the RRI maintained an unbroken streak of accelerating growth. This gap indicated that established listings commanded significant pricing power independent of new supply. It also reflected the impact of regulations that removed lower-priced or non-compliant listings from the market, artificially elevating the overall price floor.

Forward booking activity remained healthy. Nights booked, which include reservations made in February for current or future stays, declined by 3.4% in February 2026, following a 2.6% decline in January. However, because realized stays dropped more sharply than new reservations, the ratio of nights booked to demand nights rose to 1.09 in February 2026, up 1.2% from 1.07 in February 2025. This ratio meant that for every 100 nights stayed, 109 new nights were booked, resulting in a 2.1 million night pipeline surplus. AirDNA interpreted this as a sign of normalization, with travel becoming more concentrated in the summer and shoulder seasons rather than overall weakening.

Geopolitical disruptions and eclipse demand

The outbreak of conflict in late February 2026 had an immediate impact on short-term rental markets, particularly through a surge in cancellation rates. Comparing the baseline period of February 21 to 27 to the conflict window of February 28 to March 6, the United Arab Emirates saw an unprecedented 539% spike in cancellations. Nearby hubs also experienced major increases, including Jordan at 524%, Qatar at 502%, Oman at 305%, and Israel at 195%.

The impact extended into Southern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus, which had recently experienced bombings, saw cancellations jump by 183%. Turkey recorded a 27% rise in cancellation rates as traveler anxiety spread.

Conversely, looking ahead to the summer, the solar eclipse expected on August 12, 2026, was already driving significant demand increases in countries along its direct path. In Iceland, demand for that date was pacing 135% higher than for the same date in 2025, with the effect concentrated in Reykjavik. Spain, which had 280,000 more listings than Iceland, saw demand rise by 19% for August 12, 2026, despite a regulatory environment that had caused budget listings to drop by 12% year over year in 2025.

What to take from it

The performance of European short-term rentals in early 2026 offers several strategic guidelines for property managers and investors monitoring market health.

• Compare your property's performance against the local Repeat Rent Index rather than broad average daily rates to get an accurate picture of established operator pricing power.
• Monitor local supply growth rates closely, as rapid inventory expansion in regions like the Nordics can depress occupancy even when local traveler demand is rising.
• Track the ratio of nights booked to demand nights to gauge the strength of your forward booking pipeline, especially during the shoulder seasons.
• Anticipate regulatory impacts on supply by watching for sharp drops in active listings, which can artificially inflate market-wide average daily rates while restricting overall demand.