U.S. short-term rental occupancy averaged 61.3% in March 2026

Updated 15 October 2026. After a source check by the standards desk, 1 sentence was removed because no source confirmed its specifics. Corrections log.

On April 21, 2026, AirDNA reported that U.S. short-term rental occupancy averaged 61.3% in March 2026, representing a decline of 0.3% year-over-year. The data indicated that the domestic short-term rental market was beginning to stabilize as demand rebounded and supply growth showed signs of leveling off, even as broader economic uncertainty persisted.

According to the report, booking activity remained strong during the month, suggesting that travelers continued to plan ahead while adjusting to shifting economic conditions. While occupancy remained slightly below the levels recorded in March 2025, the year-over-year gap narrowed as travel patterns normalized following the volatility observed in late 2025.

What the data shows

The performance metrics published by AirDNA highlighted a general stabilization across the U.S. short-term rental sector in March 2026. Revenue per Available Rental rose 2.3% year-over-year to $165.14. Total available listings reached 1.68 million, which represented a 3.3% increase compared to March 2025. Demand nights grew 2.0% year-over-year, and the Average Daily Rate rose to $269.34, representing an increase of 2.6% from the previous year.

The Repeat Rent Index, which tracks rate changes for properties with consistent booking histories, rose 5.1% year-over-year. Total nights booked in March 2026 increased 5.2% compared to the same month in 2025. AirDNA noted that demand and booking growth had fallen significantly during the latter half of 2025, which the company characterized as a period of contrasting performance halves, but showed recovery in early 2026.

Performance varied significantly by location type and region. Coastal markets experienced an occupancy increase of 1.5% year-over-year, while large city suburban markets saw occupancy rise 0.6%, and urban markets grew 1.1%. Conversely, mountain and lake resorts saw occupancy fall 5.3% year-over-year. AirDNA attributed this decline to a severe snow drought that left skiers disappointed. Without the decline in mountain and lake resorts, the remainder of the short-term rental market saw occupancy rise 0.6% year-over-year.

Specific municipal markets in California and Colorado demonstrated these divergent trends. Coastal California cities saw the highest occupancy gains among the top 50 U.S. short-term rental markets, with San Diego rising 11.1%, San Francisco rising 9.7%, and Anaheim rising 8.4%. In contrast, the California ski market of Big Bear experienced an occupancy decline of 14.0%. In Colorado, the urban market of Denver saw occupancy rise 8.1%, while the ski market of Breckenridge fell 14.3%.

How it was measured

The metrics in the report were compiled by AirDNA and published on April 21, 2026. The data reflected short-term rental performance across the United States during the month of March 2026. AirDNA tracked listing availability, bookings, and pricing across major platforms to generate these national and regional figures.

The report did not detail the exact proprietary algorithms or the precise number of individual properties analyzed to calculate these averages. However, the company utilized its Repeat Rent Index to isolate price changes among existing listings, comparing properties with active histories to separate true pricing trends from the impact of new listings entering the market at different price points.

Economic drivers and interest rates

Macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical events heavily influenced consumer behavior and market dynamics in March 2026. AirDNA reported that the continuing conflict in Iran dominated economic discussions, as fears of oil shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz raised inflation concerns. U.S. inflation, which had dropped to 2.4% in January and February, rose to 3.3% in March 2026, representing the highest rate in nearly two years. This shift was primarily driven by the food and energy segments, particularly gasoline prices. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose to 2.6% in March 2026, up from 2.5% in February.

The report noted that previous inflationary factors, such as the Trump Administration’s Liberation Day tariff increases in 2025, had largely passed by the beginning of March 2026. However, the Strait of Hormuz disruption created new upward pressure on prices. Although 2026 tax returns reflected additional cuts and had initially shown stimulatory promise, AirDNA noted that these returns could ultimately be consumed by higher prices. Over time, rising gasoline and input costs were expected to pass through to goods via raw materials, freight, and energy expenses.

Interest rates and mortgage trends also deviated from earlier expectations. At the beginning of 2026, AirDNA observed falling interest rates and predicted that declining mortgage rates would follow, stimulating short-term rental investment and supply. According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates dipped slightly below 6% at the end of February but climbed quickly to end March 2026 at approximately 6.5%. These rising rates weakened the outlook for home sales and eventual listing growth, though they widened the competitive moat for existing operators by limiting new competition.

Additionally, about 35,000 of the jobs added in March 2026 were healthcare workers returning from a strike. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in February to 4.3% in March 2026, while the labor force participation rate declined from 62.0% to 61.9%. Real wages fell 0.6% in March 2026, indicating that the labor market remained tight but did not provide significant consumer comfort.

Supply and listing growth dynamics

Available listing growth in the U.S. short-term rental market accelerated in March 2026, rising to 3.3% from 2.2% in February. This represented the fastest rate of growth since June of the previous year, continuing a choppy acceleration since listing growth hit a low of approximately 1.5% in September 2025. AirDNA reported that mortgage rate declines from the beginning of 2025 to the beginning of 2026 had improved investment prospects and stimulated marginal new supply, though the lag between interest rate changes and new listings meant the March rate increases did not immediately impact supply.

New listings grew 8.2% in March 2026, representing a little over 4,000 more new listings than in March 2025. This marked a significant increase after new listing growth hovered near zero and briefly turned negative in February 2026. However, compared to the years following the 2020 Covid-19 outbreak, supply growth since the beginning of 2025 maintained a much flatter trajectory. AirDNA indicated that a stagnant population, decreasing incoming international travel, higher mortgage rates, and inflation would likely keep the current era as one of more moderate expansion.

Forward pacing and summer outlook

Forward booking data collected in March 2026 pointed to a stronger outlook for the second and third quarters of the year. Demand for April was pacing 2.8% ahead of the previous year, while May demand was pacing 2.9% ahead. AirDNA reported that the real acceleration in demand was expected to occur in the summer, with June demand pacing 15.2% ahead and July demand pacing 17.1% ahead.

This summer pacing was supported by early reservations for the World Cup games, which were scheduled to begin in June and continue through July, as well as expectations for the 250th anniversary of Independence Day. While there was some speculation that energy prices and international unrest could disrupt the games, AirDNA noted that there was little evidence of cancellations or reduced demand. Additionally, reservations for early September 2026 were pacing 24.2% ahead of the previous year, which the company suggested could indicate seasonal bargain-hunting and a calendar shift moving Labor Day weekend travel from August back into September.

What to take from it

The performance metrics from March 2026 offer several strategic lessons for short-term rental operators and investors monitoring market health:

• Compare local demand trends against national benchmarks, as regional factors like weather can create significant performance gaps.
• Monitor the Repeat Rent Index alongside Average Daily Rate to determine whether rate changes are driven by market-wide pricing power or the influx of low-cost listings.
• Track forward pacing metrics for major regional events, such as the World Cup, to adjust pricing strategies well ahead of peak seasonal demand.
• Evaluate local supply growth rates rather than national averages, as the flattening of overall listing growth may not reflect competitive dynamics in specific high-demand markets.