U.S. short-term rental RevPAR fell 0.6% in August 2026

Updated 15 October 2026. After a source check by the standards desk, 2 sentences were removed because no source confirmed their specifics. Corrections log.

On September 16, 2026, AirDNA reported that U.S. short-term rental revenue per available rental (RevPAR) fell 0.6% year over year in August 2026 to $166.01, as a drop in occupancy offset gains in average daily rates. The analytics firm stated that the decline was primarily driven by a calendar shift involving the Labor Day holiday rather than a fundamental softening of consumer demand.

According to the report, average daily rates (ADR) rose 2.7% year over year to reach $287.34, but this increase was not enough to offset a 3.3% drop in average occupancy, which fell to 57.8% for the month.

What the data shows

The performance metrics published by AirDNA for August 2026 show a market experiencing minor declines in headline figures, alongside underlying indicators of steady demand. Revenue per available rental (RevPAR) declined 0.6% year over year to $166.01. This decline occurred because average daily rates (ADR), which climbed to $287.34, representing a 2.7% increase from last year, were unable to fully compensate for a 3.3% year-over-year drop in average occupancy to 57.8%.

Available listings in the United States reached 1.76 million in August 2026, which represented a 2.0% increase year over year. However, this growth rate marked a deceleration from previous months. Demand nights declined 2.3% year over year, while total nights booked rose 2.5% compared to 2025. The Repeat Rent Index (RRI), which tracks pricing changes among existing operators rather than the broader average of all active listings, rose 5.2% year over year, showing stronger pricing power among established hosts than the headline ADR growth of 2.7% would suggest.

The primary driver behind the negative year-over-year comparisons in demand and occupancy was the shifting position of the Labor Day holiday weekend. In 2025, Labor Day weekend fell in August, whereas in 2026, the holiday weekend shifted entirely into September. This calendar shift removed a highly active late-summer travel weekend from the August comparison window. AirDNA reported that every single day in August 2026 experienced higher demand than the corresponding day in 2025, until the comparison reached the Friday of the Labor Day holiday weekend in 2025.

When adjusting for this calendar discrepancy by shifting the comparison window back by just three days—looking at the period from July 29 through August 28, 2026—the metrics shift significantly. Under this adjusted window, demand nights rose 3.3% compared to the same period in 2025, and the occupancy shortfall reversed into a 2.2% gain, which represented the largest year-over-year occupancy increase of 2026 up to that point.

How it was measured

The figures in the report were compiled and analyzed by AirDNA, a short-term rental data and analytics provider. The performance metrics cover the month of August 2026, comparing the results directly against August 2025 to establish year-over-year trends. To measure pricing trends accurately without distortion from changes in the overall mix of active listings, AirDNA utilized its Repeat Rent Index (RRI). The RRI isolates existing operators to track how active hosts adjusted their rates over the twelve-month period.

For future-looking projections, AirDNA analyzed booking pacing data, which measures the volume of reservations made for future months relative to the same point in the prior year. This pacing analysis included specific event-based tracking for the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Austin, scheduled for October 2026, categorizing performance across budget, midscale, and luxury price tiers.

Macroeconomic pressures and supply trends

The growth of short-term rental supply in the United States continued to slow in August 2026, reflecting persistent macroeconomic challenges. Available listings grew 2.0% year over year, down from a 2.6% growth rate recorded in July 2026. This deceleration represents the second consecutive month of slowing supply growth, a trend driven largely by high mortgage rates and high home prices that have kept the housing market constrained.

Mortgage rates remained close to 6.7% in August 2026, having hovered around that level since the commencement of the U.S. war on Iran in February 2026. By September 2026, mortgage rates reached as high as 7%, marking the highest rate observed in over a year. AirDNA's research indicates that there is typically a six-month lag between shifts in mortgage rates and the introduction of new short-term rental listings. This lag placed August 2026 at the end of a brief window of slightly lower interest rates, such as when mortgage rates dipped below 6% in February 2026. The Trump administration noted that renewed hostilities in September 2026 would likely contribute to inflation for at least the subsequent two months, suggesting little near-term relief for interest rates.

The slowdown in supply growth was most pronounced in coastal and urban locations. In coastal markets, listing growth slowed to 1.2% in August 2026, down from 1.8% in July 2026. Urban markets experienced an even sharper drop, with listing growth slowing to 0.3% in August 2026 compared to 2.2% in July 2026. In contrast, small city and rural locations maintained the fastest supply growth rate at 5.6% year over year, though these markets represent a relatively small portion of total supply and have a limited impact on national figures.

The sharp deceleration in urban supply growth was partly attributed to the conclusion of the World Cup. Some operators who listed properties specifically for the tournament may have deactivated their listings in August. However, AirDNA's analysis of listings newly introduced in 2026 that were rented during the World Cup showed that the vast majority remained active and rented in August 2026, indicating durability among these new listings. When excluding listings in World Cup host markets, the 0.3% growth rate for urban locations in August 2026 drops to a 3.9% year-over-year decline.

On the broader economic front, the U.S. labor market showed resilience. The August jobs report exceeded expectations, adding 162,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Labor force participation rose to 61.6% in August 2026, up from 61.4% in July 2026. While this labor strength supports consumer spending, it also reduced expectations of a benchmark lending rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, oil prices near $100 a barrel contributed to higher transportation, energy, and food costs, eroding real wages.

The holiday calendar and demand shifts

The apparent decline in demand in August 2026 was heavily distorted by the calendar. The headline demand figure fell 2.3% year over year, a stark contrast to the positive growth rates of 2.1% recorded in June 2026 and 1.9% in July 2026. These two summer months had represented the fastest demand growth rates since October 2025, when demand rose 2.7%.

The decline in August 2026 was almost entirely due to the Labor Day weekend shift. In 2025, the holiday weekend boosted August demand at the expense of September. In 2026, the reverse occurred, meaning September was expected to receive a significant demand boost from the holiday weekend. Shifting the comparison window by three days to align the holiday weekends showed that demand nights for the period from July 29 through August 28, 2026, were actually 3.3% higher than the corresponding period in 2025.

The impact of this calendar shift was unevenly distributed across different location types. Coastal, mountain/lake, and urban markets—which are highly dependent on long holiday weekends—experienced the most significant drops in demand. Meanwhile, demand remained essentially flat in small city/rural, suburban, and mid-size city locations, which are less reliant on holiday weekend travel.

Occupancy trends followed a similar trajectory. The year began with January 2026 occupancy falling 1.6% lower than the prior year, partly due to a snow drought that limited ski travel. Occupancy growth improved slowly throughout the year, reaching a 0.1% growth rate by July 2026. While the second half of 2026 was expected to post occupancy gains due to weak comparisons from late 2025, the calendar shift in August resulted in a 3.2% occupancy shortfall compared to August 2025. Adjusting the comparison window by three days reversed this shortfall into a 2.2% year-over-year gain, marking the strongest occupancy performance of 2026.

Pricing adjustments after major events

Average daily rate (ADR) growth cooled in August 2026, rising 2.7% year over year to $287.34. This represented a deceleration from the 5.2% ADR growth recorded in July 2026. The slower growth rate brought August closer to the pre-World Cup ADR growth rate of 2.4% observed from January through May 2026. This cooling occurred as World Cup host cities returned to more typical pricing levels following the tournament's conclusion.

The AirDNA Repeat Rent Index (RRI) rose 5.2% year over year in August 2026, outperforming the general ADR growth rate. This difference indicates that while the broader average rate was pulled down by a shift in booking composition toward smaller or lower-priced properties, existing operators who remained active successfully raised their rates. Bram Gallagher, Director of Economics and Forecasting at AirDNA, noted the impact of the calendar shift on the headline figures:

“The headline numbers look weak, but the cause is calendar timing, not softening demand.”

Across different location types, ADR growth varied. Coastal and mountain/lake resort locations both recorded a 4.3% year-over-year increase in ADR. While this was lower than the 6.8% and 6.9% growth rates recorded in July 2026 for these locations, they remained the fastest-growing areas for rates. In contrast, urban ADR growth dropped significantly, falling from a 12.1% increase in July 2026 to a 2.5% increase in August 2026. Small city/rural locations saw ADR rise 1.3%, while mid-size cities recorded a 0.5% increase, despite having minimal connection to World Cup demand.

Among the 50 largest short-term rental markets in the United States, the top performers for ADR growth were San Jose/Palo Alto, which rose 13.5% year over year, and Jersey City/Newark, which rose 13.1%. These markets were followed by Sarasota, where ADR rose 12.5%, and Anaheim, where ADR rose 8.8% year over year. The strong performance of Sarasota and Anaheim, both traditional summer leisure destinations with no connection to the World Cup, indicated that August marked a transition back to fundamental seasonal demand rather than event-driven pricing spikes.

Future pacing and event performance

Looking ahead into the remainder of 2026 and early 2027, booking pacing remained strong. AirDNA reported that no future month was tracking less than 9.0% ahead of 2025 booking levels. This pacing strength was supported by weak comparisons from the second half of 2025 and the low performance of January and February 2026, which suffered from a severe snow drought in Western ski destinations.

Specific major events were already driving substantial revenue gains. In Austin, the Formula 1 Grand Prix scheduled for October 2026 at the Circuit of the Americas was pacing well ahead of the previous year's event, which was held from October 17 through October 19, 2025. For the 2026 event, with practice sessions starting October 23 and the main race running October 25, short-term rental revenue was pacing 20.1% ahead of the 2025 race weekend.

An analysis of booking pacing by price tier for the Formula 1 weekend revealed distinct strategies among operators. Midscale short-term rentals were pacing to achieve the largest RevPAR increase, rising 25.8% over the previous year's event. This gain was driven by a combination of 10.5% higher occupancy and a 15.3% increase in rates. Budget-tier properties raised RevPAR by 15.9%, achieving almost all of this gain through a 12.7% rate increase, while occupancy rose only 3.2%. Conversely, luxury-tier properties saw a 16.7% increase in occupancy, while rates remained nearly flat, rising just 0.9%, resulting in a RevPAR boost driven almost entirely by volume rather than pricing.

What to take from it

The performance metrics from August 2026 offer several key lessons for short-term rental operators and investors analyzing market trends:

• Always adjust year-over-year performance comparisons for holiday calendar shifts, as major holiday weekends moving between months can create artificial drops or spikes in occupancy and demand.
• Monitor the Repeat Rent Index alongside average daily rates to understand whether pricing changes in a market are driven by existing hosts raising rates or by a shift in the overall mix of active listings.
• Anticipate a lag of approximately six months between mortgage rate movements and changes in available listing supply when planning portfolio expansions.
• Track event-specific pacing data, such as the Formula 1 Grand Prix, to adjust pricing strategies by tier, noting that budget properties may have more ability to raise rates while luxury properties see gains through occupancy.