U.S. short-term rental bookings rose 5.5% in January 2026 as supply outpaced demand

Updated 15 October 2026. After a source check by the standards desk, 1 sentence was removed because no source confirmed its specifics. Corrections log.

In January 2026, total U.S. short-term rental bookings rose 5.5% year-over-year, according to a market review published by the data and analytics firm AirDNA on February 17, 2026. This increase represented the fastest growth pace for new bookings since July and marked the second consecutive month of acceleration, signaling early-year demand momentum for the short-term rental sector.

However, this demand was met with an even faster expansion of available listings, which rose 4.2% year-over-year to 1.68 million. As supply growth outpaced demand, average occupancy fell 1.5% year-over-year to 48.4%, continuing a downward trend in occupancy that began in August 2025.

What the data shows

AirDNA reported that several key performance metrics for U.S. short-term rentals posted modest gains in January 2026 despite the decline in occupancy. Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR) increased 2.1% year-over-year to $119.27. The Average Daily Rate (ADR) climbed to $246.62, representing a 3.6% increase from January 2025. Additionally, the Repeat Rent Index (RRI) rose 4.4% year-over-year.

The expansion of supply was driven by a renewed growth in new listings. AirDNA reported that new listings increased 7.6% in January 2026, which was the third consecutive month of growth after nearly two years of year-over-year declines. This supply acceleration followed a period where new listing growth bottomed out in mid-2025 before gradually recovering.

While total nights booked grew 5.5% year-over-year, nights stayed increased by a more modest 2.5% year-over-year in January 2026. Performance varied significantly by location type. Small city and rural destinations led demand growth, with nights stayed rising nearly 6% year-over-year. Coastal markets followed with a 4% increase in nights stayed. In contrast, demand for mountain and lake destinations remained largely flat.

Forward pacing data for spring and summer bookings showed strong momentum. AirDNA reported that bookings for March 2026 were up 7% year-over-year, while April 2026 bookings were up 12% year-over-year. Summer demand was also strengthening, supported by the scheduled 2026 World Cup. Bookings for June and July 2026 were up 22% year-over-year, with strong gains in host markets such as Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Miami, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle, and Atlanta. Even when excluding these host cities, pacing remained solid, with June bookings up 17% and July bookings up 20% year-over-year, indicating broad-based demand growth across U.S. markets.

Booking lead times continued their multi-year decline in January 2026. The median lead time fell to 17 days, down from 18 days in January 2025 and 21 days in January 2024. This represented a 6% year-over-year decrease from 2025, which had itself seen a 14% year-over-year decline from 2024. Short lead times were most pronounced in lower price tiers, where 30% of budget stays and 28% of economy stays were booked within five days of arrival. For higher-tier properties, 24% of upscale stays and 22% of luxury stays were booked within five days. Luxury properties continued to capture the largest share of longer lead-time bookings, with one-third of stays booked more than two months in advance, though luxury also experienced the steepest year-over-year decline in bookings made more than 30 days in advance. In contrast, economy, midscale, and upscale segments saw an increasing share of bookings made more than three months in advance, suggesting a growing mix of early planners alongside last-minute travellers.

How it was measured

The figures in the report were compiled and analyzed by AirDNA, a short-term rental data and analytics provider. The data covers performance metrics for U.S. short-term rental listings, including occupancy, average daily rates, revenue per available rental, and booking volumes during the month of January 2026, with comparisons to previous years. AirDNA tracks listings across major platforms, including Airbnb and Vrbo, to generate its metrics. The report did not publish the exact total number of properties or individual booking transactions analyzed in its database to arrive at these percentages and averages, but it noted that available listings in the United States reached 1.68 million during the period.

Factors influencing performance

Economic conditions, weather disruptions, and calendar shifts were the primary drivers of short-term rental performance in January 2026.

Total employment increased by 130,000 jobs in January 2026, which was the largest monthly gain since December 2024 and only 50,000 jobs short of the total added in all of 2025. Consequently, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%. Inflation also eased, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in December 2025, which AirDNA attributed to the fading impact of the April 2025 tariff increases.

Despite these positive indicators, inflation remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and labor market strength threatened to delay further interest rate cuts. While the Federal Reserve reduced rates at the end of 2025, mortgage rates only fell slightly, dropping from 6.16% to 6.10% in January 2026, according to Freddie Mac. Oxford Economics expected mortgage rates to remain near 6.1% over the following year, as current short-term rates were close to neutral levels that were neither expansionary nor contractionary. Further rate cuts were expected to be limited or short-lived, particularly if inflationary pressures persisted.

Weather played a major role in regional performance divergences. Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions led to record-low snowpack across many western ski destinations in January 2026, keeping slopes only partially open. This caused short-term rental demand to fall more than 10% year-over-year in Colorado and Utah ski markets, including Telluride, Steamboat Springs, Winter Park, and Taos. Conversely, eastern ski destinations in New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine saw demand night growth of more than 10% year-over-year due to stronger snow conditions.

Calendar shifts also influenced spring break demand pacing. Because Easter shifted back to early April 2026 after falling later in the calendar in 2025, spring break travel was spread across both March and April, supporting strong pacing in both months. Additionally, major events like the 2026 World Cup and tighter tourism controls in parts of Europe, combined with a favorable exchange rate for European travellers, were expected to support U.S. demand.

Impact on hosts and investors

The divergence in performance affected hosts, property managers, and investors differently depending on their geography and price segment.

In western ski markets, hosts and property managers faced steep demand drops of over 10% due to the snow drought, while their eastern counterparts benefited from a double-digit surge in demand nights. In Florida beach destinations, rapid supply growth put downward pressure on occupancy. Listing growth of 5% to 15% year-over-year in several Florida beach markets made them some of the weakest performers for occupancy. However, some coastal markets recovering from past weather events showed signs of supply expansion. For instance, Cape Coral and Fort Myers, which were heavily affected by Hurricane Ian, had approximately 3,500 more listings in January 2026 than in August 2022, before the storm hit.

Property managers and hosts operating budget and economy listings had to manage much shorter booking windows, with 30% of budget stays and 28% of economy stays booked within five days of arrival. Even luxury hosts saw a shift, experiencing the steepest year-over-year decline in bookings made more than 30 days in advance, forcing them to adapt to more last-minute booking behaviors.

Investors looking at new properties faced a mixed environment. While lower mortgage rates of 6.10% were expected to ease housing market conditions and support continued short-term rental investment, the pace of investment was not expected to match the levels seen immediately after pandemic restrictions were lifted. Additional support was expected to come from fiscal measures, including tax benefits from the budget plan and infrastructure spending rolling out over the year.

What the figures leave out

While the AirDNA report provided a comprehensive overview of top-line performance, it left out several critical operational details. First, the data did not disclose the net profitability of hosts and property managers. Although average daily rates rose 3.6% and RevPAR increased 2.1%, these figures did not account for rising operational costs, local lodging taxes, insurance premiums, or cleaning fees.

Second, the report did not break down performance by platform. It aggregated data from platforms like Airbnb and Vrbo, making it impossible to see whether one platform performed better than another or if booking channels were shifting.

Third, while the report highlighted a government shutdown as a factor weighing on demand growth alongside low consumer confidence and persistent inflation, it did not quantify the specific impact of this prolonged government shutdown on short-term rental bookings or specify which regions were most affected by federal worker travel cuts.

Finally, the report did not detail the exact supply and demand dynamics of the adventure destinations gaining traction, such as Moab, which moved to the top of the list for spring break travel in the weeks leading up to the report but lacked specific percentage growth or listing count figures.

What to take from it

For short-term rental operators and investors, the January 2026 data highlights the importance of tracking local supply dynamics and booking windows rather than national headlines. To manage operations in this competitive market, operators should focus on the following metrics:

• Compare local supply growth against local demand growth rather than relying on national occupancy averages, as high listing growth in areas like Florida can quickly depress individual occupancy rates.
• Monitor changes in booking lead times within your specific price tier, adjusting pricing strategies to accommodate the growing trend of last-minute bookings, especially in the budget and economy segments.
• Track major regional and international events, such as the 2026 World Cup, to capitalize on early booking pacing in host cities and surrounding areas.
• Analyze historical weather dependencies and calendar shifts, such as the movement of Easter, to better anticipate shifts in seasonal demand across March and April.