Key Data projected U.S. short-term rental RevPAR to rise 7% in December 2025

On November 13, 2025, short-term rental analytics company Key Data reported that U.S. short-term rental Revenue per Available Rental (RevPAR) for December 2025 was projected to rise 7% year over year, signaling a strong finish to the year for the sector. The company's Autumn 2025 Vacation Rental Market Report indicated that holiday travel demand was driving significant momentum heading into the winter season, helping operators finish the year with stronger rates, higher revenue, and growing traveler confidence.

Alongside the projected RevPAR growth, Key Data reported that Average Daily Rates (ADR) for December 2025 were pacing 6% higher year over year. November 2025 ADRs were also pacing 5% higher year over year, confirming that guests remained willing to pay for quality and space even as trip lengths shortened. After a volatile year, the December projections marked the clearest sign yet of a stabilizing market, with travelers paying more per night and property managers holding firm on pricing.

What the data shows

The performance metrics released by Key Data on November 13, 2025, pointed to a broad stabilization across the U.S. short-term rental market, driven by strong pacing for the final two months of the year. Key Data reported that November 2025 ADRs were pacing 5% higher year over year, which established a positive trajectory leading into the peak holiday season. This rate growth accelerated into December 2025, where ADRs paced 6% higher year over year, and RevPAR was projected to rise 7% year over year.

The report highlighted that these gains were not uniform across the country, but were instead driven by a mix of classic holiday destinations and resilient year-round markets. Key Data provided specific regional breakdowns for December 2025 pacing. In New England, RevPAR was projected to rise 5% year over year. In the Hawaiian Islands, RevPAR was also projected to rise 5% year over year. In the Rocky Mountains, RevPAR was projected to rise 4% year over year, while the Midwest US also saw RevPAR projected to rise 4% year over year. In the Southwest, RevPAR was projected to rise 3% year over year. In contrast, the Southeast remained broadly flat, with RevPAR projected to fall 1% year over year following a highly competitive summer season.

Key Data noted that while the Southwest continued to post RevPAR growth of 3% despite facing rate pressure, the Southeast's 1% decline reflected the lingering effects of high supply and intense competition. Elsewhere in the country, performance had largely stabilized, suggesting that the extreme volatility observed earlier in the year was beginning to subside. The data indicated that travelers were willing to pay premium rates for properties that offered quality and space, allowing property managers to hold their ground on pricing rather than discounting to secure bookings.

How it was measured

The figures published on November 13, 2025, were compiled and analyzed by Key Data, a performance analytics and benchmarking platform for the short-term rental industry. The data was sourced from Key Data's Autumn Vacation Rental Report 2025, which tracks real-time performance across thousands of short-term rental properties in all 50 U.S. states.

Key Data's index is built on anonymized reservation data sourced directly from integrated property management systems (PMS). This direct integration allows the platform to capture real-time performance metrics, including demand, revenue, pricing, and guest behavior trends. To provide a comprehensive view of the market, Key Data combines this direct PMS data with Online Travel Agency (OTA) data, which the company stated offers visibility into portfolio and market performance across more than 500 global markets.

The platform tracks over 45 forward-looking key performance indicators (KPIs) and provides daily updates. Key Data is also the exclusive data partner of the Vacation Rental Management Association (VRMA). By utilizing direct reservation data rather than relying solely on scraped public listing data, Key Data aims to deliver highly accurate, real-time insights directly from the source of the bookings.

Shifting traveler behavior

The recovery and stabilization observed in late 2025 occurred alongside significant shifts in traveler behavior, which Key Data highlighted as critical factors for operators to understand. The data showed that guests were booking closer to their arrival dates and staying for shorter periods. Specifically, Key Data reported that the average December stay length fell from 6.6 nights to 6.0 nights, representing a 9% drop year over year. This reduction in stay length meant that while guests were paying more per night, they were compressing their overall holiday trips.

In addition to shorter stays, booking windows also compressed. Key Data reported that booking windows compressed by around 5% in most months, even during peak periods. This compression reflected a broader shift toward more spontaneous and flexible travel planning among U.S. consumers. Rather than securing holiday accommodations months in advance, travelers in late 2025 were increasingly waiting until closer to their travel dates to finalize their bookings.

This behavioral shift presented both challenges and opportunities. While shorter booking windows can create anxiety for property managers accustomed to early reservations, the data suggested that the demand was still present, merely delayed. The compression of booking windows required property managers to remain patient and avoid premature price discounting, as holiday travelers demonstrated a willingness to pay higher rates once they did commit to booking.

Implications for property managers

The combination of shorter stay lengths, compressed booking windows, and rising average daily rates created a unique operational environment for short-term rental operators. Key Data emphasized that agility and automation had become essential for property managers looking to sustain revenue performance through the winter. Because booking windows compressed by around 5% and average stay lengths fell 9% for December, property managers faced a higher volume of turnovers and a shorter timeframe to capture last-minute demand. Key Data noted that operators who adapted flexible pricing strategies and efficient turnover processes were best positioned to capture this spontaneous demand.

Melanie Brown, Key Data's Vice President of Data Analytics and Insights, commented on how operators were responding to these shifting dynamics:

“What we’re seeing in the winter data is a market that’s steadied itself after a long period of correction. Forward-looking bookings for December show the highest rate and revenue growth of the year, with ADR pacing 6% higher and RevPAR up 7% year over year. That’s a clear sign that confidence has returned, both from travelers who are still willing to pay for quality, and from managers who’ve held their ground on pricing. Even with shorter booking windows and increasingly brief trips, operators have adapted fast. They’re leaning on smarter tools, sharper data, and stronger value propositions, and that’s what’s putting the industry back on solid footing heading into 2026.”

The analysis suggested that the ability to use real-time data and automated pricing tools allowed managers to maintain pricing integrity. Instead of lowering rates in panic due to compressed booking windows, successful operators held firm, trusting that last-minute demand would materialize—a strategy that appeared to be validated by the projected 7% rise in December RevPAR.

What to take from it

The data from Key Data's Autumn 2025 Vacation Rental Market Report provides several key lessons for short-term rental hosts, property managers, and investors evaluating their performance.

• Monitor local pacing metrics rather than national averages, as regional performance varied from a 5% RevPAR rise in New England and the Hawaiian Islands to a 1% decline in the Southeast.
• Adjust operational workflows to accommodate shorter stay lengths, such as the 9% drop in December stay lengths from 6.6 to 6.0 nights, which requires faster turnover times and tighter scheduling.
• Expect and plan for compressed booking windows by avoiding early price discounting, as a 5% compression in booking windows means demand is highly likely to materialize closer to the arrival date.
• Evaluate property management software integrations to ensure real-time data access, as the ability to adapt pricing dynamically is critical when booking patterns become more spontaneous.