U.S. short-term rental demand fell 0.1% in September 2025

On October 15, 2025, AirDNA reported that U.S. short-term rental demand fell 0.1% year-over-year in September 2025, marking the first negative movement for this metric since April 2024. This slight decline occurred alongside a deceleration in supply growth, which reached its lowest point of 2025. Despite the slight drop in overall demand, average daily rates continued to climb, helping to support overall revenue per available rental across the country.

The performance in September 2025 reflected a cooling economic environment and a calendar shift that moved a key holiday day. However, the underlying fundamentals of the short-term rental sector remained stable, supported by strong forward bookings for the holiday season in November and December. While the raw figures showed a market in transition, adjusted metrics suggested a more moderate and steady rate of expansion.

What the data shows

According to the report published by AirDNA, several key metrics defined the short-term rental market in September 2025. Revenue per available rental, known as RevPAR, increased 0.5% year-over-year to $143.25. This increase marked twelve consecutive months of year-over-year growth for RevPAR, demonstrating that top-line revenue remained resilient despite broader market pressures.

Available listings in the United States reached 1.76 million in September 2025, representing a 3.3% increase compared to September 2024. While supply continued to expand, this 3.3% growth rate was the lowest recorded in 2025, down from a 3.8% growth rate in August 2025. This deceleration followed a period in May and June of 2025 when supply growth had accelerated to above 5%.

Demand nights were essentially flat, dipping 0.1% year-over-year. This represented the first year-over-year decline in demand since April 2024. However, AirDNA reported that this decline was heavily influenced by a calendar shift. In 2025, one day of the Labor Day holiday weekend shifted from September into August. When adjusting for this shift by comparing September 2025 with the period from September 2 to October 1, 2024, demand growth was actually up 2.0% year-over-year. This adjusted rate was still slower than the 3.7% demand growth recorded in August 2025.

Occupancy averaged 48.1% in September 2025, which was down 3.9% year-over-year. When adjusting for the Labor Day calendar shift, the occupancy decline was halved to 2.0%. This adjusted decline was more in line with the moderate monthly drops observed since May 2025, which typically ranged between 1% and 1.2%. Year-to-date occupancy for 2025 remained level with 2024 at 56.6%, supported by strong performance in the early months of the year.

Average daily rates, or ADR, rose to $297.79 in September 2025, representing a 4.5% increase from September 2024. This was a slight deceleration from the 5.1% year-over-year ADR growth recorded in August 2025, but it marked the nineteenth consecutive month of year-over-year rate increases. Additionally, the Repeat Rent Index, which measures pricing changes among existing operators and excludes the impact of new listings, rose 3.8% year-over-year in September 2025, compared to a 4.1% increase in August 2025.

Total nights booked, which serve as an indicator of future demand, rose 3.0% compared to September 2024. This was down slightly from the 3.1% booking growth recorded in August 2025, suggesting that future demand was holding steady despite the immediate slowdown in September performance.

How it was measured

The figures in the report were compiled and analyzed by AirDNA, a short-term rental data and analytics provider. The primary researcher was Bram Gallagher, the Director of Economics and Forecasting at AirDNA. The data reflects performance metrics for short-term rental properties across the United States during the month of September 2025, with comparisons made against September 2024 and other prior months of 2025.

AirDNA tracks listings and performance data across major short-term rental platforms, including Airbnb and Vrbo. The metrics include available listings, which represent the total number of properties listed for rent; demand nights, which measure the number of nights booked and stayed; and occupancy, which represents the percentage of available nights that were booked. The Average Daily Rate measures the average price paid per booked night, while RevPAR is calculated by multiplying the occupancy rate by the ADR. The Repeat Rent Index is a proprietary metric that tracks pricing changes specifically among existing operators, isolating these trends from the pricing of newly created listings.

Economic factors shaping the market

The broader macroeconomic environment in September 2025 was marked by increased uncertainty. A federal government shutdown halted the publication of official labor data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before the shutdown took effect, the Bureau of Labor Statistics had reported a significant hiring slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy in August 2025, representing one of the weakest monthly gains in recent years.

To fill the data gap during the shutdown, private-sector estimates were utilized. The Carlyle Group, using data from its portfolio companies, estimated that only 17,000 jobs were added to the private sector in September 2025. Meanwhile, the payroll processing firm ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs during September 2025. These figures collectively indicated a stalling labor market and raised concerns about a broader cooling of the U.S. economy.

In response to these signs of economic weakness, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September 2025. This was the first interest rate reduction of 2025. Prior to the shutdown, inflation had hovered near 3%, but the weakening labor market prompted policymakers to prioritize employment stability. At the time of the report, most economists expected two to three additional interest rate cuts before the end of 2025.

The mortgage markets responded quickly to the Federal Reserve's actions. Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since October 2024, briefly touching 6.26% before settling at 6.3% by the end of September 2025. While lower rates could eventually stimulate more investment in the short-term rental sector, AirDNA noted that such a reversal was unlikely to occur until well into 2026, as it takes time for target rate cuts to filter through to the housing market.

Supply growth and listing trends

The deceleration of supply growth in September 2025 helped mitigate the impact of softening demand on occupancy rates. The 3.3% year-over-year increase in available listings was a notable drop from the growth rates exceeding 5% seen in May and June of 2025. This deceleration suggested that hosts and investors were becoming more cautious in response to the cooling labor market and higher financing costs earlier in the year.

New listings also experienced a downward trend. Earlier in 2025, new listing growth had shown signs of recovery, improving from a year-over-year decline of 16.3% in January to a decline of 3.3% by June. However, this momentum stalled, and in September 2025, new listings fell 4.4% year-over-year. This decline in new inventory helped prevent a more severe drop in occupancy for existing operators.

The convergence between the Repeat Rent Index growth of 3.8% and the overall ADR growth of 4.5% indicated that new listings were being priced similarly to existing properties. The slowing rate of overall supply growth reduced the impact that changes in the mix of listings had on national rate trends, allowing existing operators to maintain steady pricing power.

Regional and market-level performance

The softening of demand in September 2025 was not felt equally across all geographic regions. According to AirDNA, no location types recorded an increase in occupancy during the month. However, Small City/Rural destinations and Coastal resort areas were the only location types that managed to achieve positive growth in demand.

At the individual market level, the number of top 50 markets posting year-over-year occupancy gains fell from 16 in August 2025 to just 8 in September 2025. Despite the drop in occupancy, supply expansion remained widespread, with 35 of the top 50 markets expanding their available listings compared to the previous year.

Of the 35 markets that expanded their supply, only four managed to achieve year-over-year occupancy increases in September 2025. These markets were:

• Long Island, New York, which saw occupancy rise 5.9% year-over-year.
• Minneapolis, Minnesota, which recorded an occupancy increase of 2.4% year-over-year.
• Gulf Shores/Mobile, Alabama, which also achieved a 2.4% occupancy increase year-over-year.
• Santa Rosa/Rosemary Beach, Florida, which saw a modest occupancy increase of 0.2% year-over-year.

Forward pacing and seasonal demand

Looking beyond September 2025, AirDNA reported that on-the-books demand pacing indicated a positive outlook for the remainder of the year. While October pacing suggested modest growth, November and December showed stronger gains. Travel demand that may have been deferred earlier in the year due to economic uncertainty following the April tariff announcements and the labor slowdown appeared poised to return during the holidays.

Bookings for Thanksgiving weekend in 2025 were pacing exceptionally well, up 14.7% compared to the same period in 2024. The weekend preceding Thanksgiving also showed strong growth, with bookings up nearly 19.7% year-over-year. The largest increases in holiday bookings were concentrated in Suburban areas, where families typically gather. Small City/Rural destinations and Coastal resorts also saw healthy pacing, indicating continued interest in late-season getaways.

At the local market level, college football schedules were driving significant demand fluctuations. The relocation of major rivalry games scheduled around November 29, 2025, contributed to sharp weekend demand spikes. These games included Florida vs. Florida State in Gainesville, South Carolina vs. Clemson in Columbia, and Ohio State vs. Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Additionally, the fall leaf-peeping season was influencing regional occupancy in October 2025. In the first half of October, northern markets such as the Maine Coast, Burlington in Vermont, the White and Green Mountains, Boston, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula experienced significant occupancy advantages. As October progressed, New England markets lost occupancy, with the exception of Boston, which maintained higher levels. In the second half of October, demand shifted south and west to areas like Lancaster in Pennsylvania, Washington, D.C., the Shenandoah Valley, the Red River Gorge in Kentucky, and the North Georgia and North Carolina mountains. By November, demand moved further south to Nashville, Chattanooga, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, and Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge.

What to take from it

The performance metrics from September 2025 offer several key lessons for short-term rental operators and investors looking to evaluate their own portfolios:

• Always adjust for calendar shifts, such as holiday weekends moving between months, before making operational pricing decisions or evaluating year-over-year performance.
• Monitor the Repeat Rent Index alongside Average Daily Rate to understand if new inventory in your local market is undercutting established listings or if pricing remains unified.
• Track local event-driven demand, such as college football schedules or regional foliage seasons, to adjust minimum stay requirements and capture seasonal demand spikes.
• Watch supply growth rates in your specific submarket rather than relying on national averages, as thirty-five of the top fifty markets expanded supply despite falling occupancy.