U.S. short-term rental revenue paced 26% higher for September 2026, KeyData reported

On July 28, 2026, KeyData reported that United States short-term rental revenue per available rental for September 2026 was pacing 26% higher than the same period in the previous year. The data provider's US Summer Index indicated that this revenue growth was primarily driven by pricing strength, even as booking demand across the country leveled off.

The forward-looking figures published in July 2026 suggested that the summer travel season was extending later into the year. While peak summer months also showed positive momentum, the projected performance for September 2026 led the seasonal outlook, reflecting a shift in traveler behavior as trips were planned further into the autumn.

What the data shows

The figures released by KeyData on July 28, 2026, showed a clear distinction between peak summer months and the late-season pacing. For September 2026, on-the-books revenue per available rental, or RevPAR, was up 26% compared to the previous year. This performance was supported by a 13% increase in occupancy and an 11% rise in average daily rates, known as ADR. KeyData noted that while September was earlier in its booking cycle and compared against a lower performance base from the previous year, the early indicators pointed to a strong revenue outlook.

The peak summer months of July and August also paced ahead of the previous year, though at a more moderate rate. July 2026 on-the-books RevPAR was up 8% compared to July of the prior year, while August 2026 on-the-books RevPAR was up 4%. Average daily rates remained firm across both months, with July on-the-books ADR pacing up 7% and August on-the-books ADR pacing up 5%.

This forward-looking pricing strength followed a consistent pattern observed throughout the second quarter of 2026. According to KeyData, ADR rose every month of the second quarter. Specifically, ADR was up 7% in April 2026, up 6% in May 2026, and up 6% in June 2026. This upward movement in nightly rates lifted RevPAR by 10% in April, 8% in May, and 7% in June. During this same second-quarter period, paid occupancy gains moderated to low single digits, demonstrating that revenue gains were being driven by pricing rather than volume.

How it was measured

The performance metrics were compiled and published by KeyData, a provider of short-term rental market intelligence. The figures were presented in KeyData's US Summer Index, which was released on July 28, 2026. The index measured both historical performance for the second quarter of 2026—covering April, May, and June—and forward-looking, "on-the-books" reservations for July, August, and September 2026.

KeyData did not publish the exact number of properties, listings, or specific geographic locations included in the overall index sample. The data provider also did not disclose the precise mathematical methodology used to aggregate the reservation and revenue figures from various booking platforms and property management systems.

Regional performance variations

The trend of rate-led revenue growth was visible across most regions of the United States, according to the KeyData report. Property operators in most areas managed to offset flat or softer occupancy growth by implementing higher average daily rates.

The Western United States led the country in revenue performance, with RevPAR up 13% compared to the previous year. The Mid-Atlantic region followed closely, recording a 12% increase in RevPAR. KeyData reported that both of these regional gains were driven largely by double-digit growth in average daily rates.

In contrast, the Hawaiian Islands presented a different performance dynamic. Rather than being led by pricing, the performance in Hawaii was driven by demand. The Hawaiian Islands stood out in the index for demand-led performance, with occupancy up 9% compared to the previous year.

The shift in booking channels

The KeyData report also highlighted significant shifts in the distribution of bookings across different reservation channels during the second quarter of 2026. Airbnb captured a larger share of the market, while direct bookings experienced a decline.

Airbnb accounted for 51% of reservations and 43% of revenue in the second quarter of 2026. These figures represented an increase from the second quarter of the previous year, when Airbnb accounted for 47% of reservations and 36% of revenue.

Conversely, direct bookings fell to 21% of reservations and 29% of revenue in the second quarter of 2026. This was a decrease from the previous year's second quarter, when direct bookings made up 25% of reservations and 36% of revenue.

Meanwhile, Vrbo maintained a stable position in the market. The platform held steady at 20% of reservations and 23% of revenue in the second quarter of 2026, matching its performance from the same period in the prior year. KeyData noted that this shift toward third-party platforms highlighted the growing importance of marketplace visibility for operators, even though direct channels continued to serve as a source of higher-value bookings.

Pricing discipline and market outlook

The data indicated that short-term rental operators maintained strict pricing discipline despite a more normalized booking environment. Sally Henry, Vice President of Market Intelligence and Insights at KeyData, commented on the strategic environment in the July 28, 2026, release.

“The story this summer is pricing. Operators have held rates firmly through the second quarter and into the forward months, and that discipline is carrying revenue growth even as booking momentum settles into a steadier pattern. September is the one to watch, with revenue pacing well ahead of last year as travelers push trips later into the season. For property managers, the opportunity now is to resist early discounting and benchmark against their own local market rather than the national average.”

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, KeyData projected a stable but more competitive market environment. The company expected revenue growth to continue, though it noted that success would depend less on broad, market-wide demand and more on how effectively individual operators managed their pricing strategies and captured bookings closer to the arrival date.

What to take from it

The performance metrics from KeyData's July 2026 report offered several clear guidelines for short-term rental operators navigating a mature market environment.

• Benchmark performance against local market competitors rather than national averages, as regional dynamics varied widely between rate-led areas like the Western United States and demand-led areas like Hawaii.
• Resist early discounting when booking pace slows, as maintaining average daily rates was shown to be the primary driver of revenue per available rental growth.
• Monitor the distribution of booking channels closely to assess whether the high visibility of third-party platforms like Airbnb is worth the potential loss of higher-value direct bookings.
• Prepare for a more competitive environment by optimizing pricing strategies to capture last-minute bookings closer to the arrival date.